The Marshall

Lakeshore

Report | Spring 2024

An up-to-date report with a focus on providing valuable insights into the lakeshore property market throughout the Okanagan.

We are pleased to announce the evolution of the “The Marshall Lakeshore Report”, now brought fully online in addition to our paper format to increase our exposure across Canada. This is an up-to-date report with a focus on providing valuable data throughout our local lakeshore market.

This report is distributed quarterly on paper format, as well as maintaining an up-to-date focus online, allowing a seamless ability to gain insight into the ever-changing lakeshore property market throughout the Okanagan Valley. As we strive to continue to be experts for these unique properties, we hope this report is useful to you in some manner. My direct line at 250-470-2388 is always open if you wish to have a conversation about the market. This report, along with print advertising, professional content creation, and use of photography/videography are just some of the tools I use to successfully market and sell some of the most notable, unique and high-value properties throughout the Okanagan. As we progress into the summer, I look forward to assisting all lakeshore owners and purchasers with their lakeshore needs.

Personal Real Estate Corporation, BCOM, REALTOR® and Associate Broker RE/MAX Kelowna
#1 individual REALTOR® at RE/MAX Kelowna for 2021.

Welcome

Lakeshore

01
Introduction

Lakeshore Market Report

Looking at the overall market as a whole over the last two quarters, considering both the Central and North Okanagan, I believe that there will be a continued general sluggishness as we progress through to Spring/Summer.

We are having a low quantity of sales at the moment, but I consider it promising that for the few sales that have occurred, they are of high quality. A good example of this is a sale that I had completed in the start of Q2 (just before the release of this most recent magazine edition), where under three weeks on the market, I successfully firmed up a transaction in Whiskey Cove in Lake Country (listed at $7,500,000). This is a great example that the purchasers are out there, and they are willing to be patient for the right kind of product to come up on the market, and act quickly if required. I have noticed that there is a fair amount of competition via active listings on the market through most price points. Given the current rate of sales, absorption is relatively low and if things were to continue, most properties would take 6-12 months to realistically sell. I firmly believe in realistic expectations, and pricing is going to continue to be very important to achieve a sale when accompanied by an aggressive marketing program. The golden question of “what is the Lakeshore market going to do for the rest of the year?” I’d say that unless there is a fundamental change in the market outside of what I expect, we are going to operate in a relatively tight +/- 5% pricing window for the remainder of the year. The reason I expect this, is that there is not enough fuel left in the tank so suddenly the market takes off with activity and drives pricing upwards, which also considers the healthy amount of inventory on the market that would need to be absorbed first to reduce the supply levels. Additionally, I don’t see enough changes possible on the demand side to suddenly rationalize that purchasers are going to begin buying in excess; perhaps if there is an unexpected decrease in interest rates further than what is anticipated, then perhaps. Likewise, a surge in the stock market to where affluent purchasers have access to additional funds, then that could be an argument for additional activity. However, I do not want to try and rely on extraordinary macroeconomic events to fuel the lakeshore market, and I feel much more comfortable forecasting that we will be in a relatively low sales environment with a somewhat stable pricing to be expected. I know that this can sound underwhelming or boring, but it really feels that this has been the case for over a year now after we came out of the vicious COVID market, which was an irreplaceable market of crazy activity and pricing growth, as seen in all facets of the real estate market.

We will continue to market our lakeshore listings effectively, both locally, nationally, and internationally regardless of market conditions, as we strive to continue to be the experts of these high-value lakeshore properties across the Okanagan Valley. Our success is evident through our sales, such as the sale of 15870 Whiskey Cove Road a few weeks ago, which was not only the highest lakeshore sale of 2024 but also had no other agents or brokerages involved, showing that our marketing truly is capable of procuring valid purchasers for our lakeshore listings.

The lakeshore market is still showing some signs of life as it is a less interest rate-sensitive product.

Scott Marshall

Lakeshore

02
Central Okanagan Statistics

Central Okanagan

Central Okanagan Lakeshore

Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 proved to be categorized by continued sluggishness in the market for the Central Okanagan, with only one sale occurring in each quarter.

As a result, the data points available continue to distort the data based on limited sales. In reality, pricing as a whole hasn’t decreased 13%+ and land pricing hasn’t reduced 50%+, but the data is what the data is. With a finger on the pulse, so to speak in the market, there is a general feeling of things improving slightly. Days into Q2, I had sold a substantial home in Whiskey Cove that was listed at $7,500,000, marking the largest lakeshore of 2024 thus far. I have often found that lakeshore can be psychological in a sense, where people do not want to be making significant purchases like this when no other sales are occurring. I am very hopeful that a sale like this can trigger some market confidence that results in further sales in the short term. Seasonally, I can tell that there is increased showing activity, alike in both affordable and expensive properties on the market. Although said activity has not translated to increased sales, this is the first necessary step to see a boost in sales. I have noticed that there is healthy activity from Alberta and Lower Mainland markets as they continue to have relatively strong markets, especially from the Calgary side of things; whenever Calgary has good activity both in their economy and real estate markets, we always see the spill-over effect here locally, and this is evident to me via increased call volume of “403” numbers.

Sales price average
-13.24%
2023 → 2024 YTD

There was a fundamental lack of sales for lakeshore properties in the first quarter of 2024. I do not want to focus as intensively on this data since the -13.24% is heavily skewed on the fact there is a singular lakeshore sale as a reference point.

Average acre size per sale
-55.27%
2023 → 2024 YTD

Likewise, the singular data points of a sale with a small land size has intensively skewed this data. I recommend not placing heavy weight on this.

Average lakeshore frontage
-19.26%
2023 → 2024 YTD

Similar as above, this was a lower lakeshore frontage sale, and this singular data point comprises the entirety of the data.

Lakeshore

03
North Okanagan Statistics

North Okanagan

North Okanagan Lakeshore

Q4 in the North Okanagan showed some life, with two sales occurring; one at $1,500,000, and one at $4,049,000.

This was great to see some general sales activity with a relevant sale in both the lower and upper price points. However, in the entirety of Q1, there was not a single lakeshore sale that occurred (outside of a stratified townhome sale, which isn’t exactly relevant to such data). This isn’t overly concerning, as I have seen such lulls in the market during the winter/early spring in the past. The important factor now in the North Okanagan, especially with having relevant listings there, is that I am seeing a similar increase in showings that I see in the Central Okanagan as we begin to get into Spring. I am hoping that the seasonal effect of winter coming to a close and the weather improving begins to increase activity yet again, and hopefully, some more sales occurring. Overall, I believe that the relative affordability of the North Okanagan in comparison to the Central Okanagan holds its place in the market still, especially now that all regions are on a similar playing field when it comes to the speculation tax, which is now in place in Kelowna, Lake Country, and Vernon alike. I find this fascinating, as Lake Country and Vernon used to be “speculation tax havens” where buyers could strategically purchase a second residence to avoid the speculation tax. Given that these areas are all in the same boat so to speak, purchasers of lakeshore properties are still going to have a focus on where they can get the best bang for their buck now that there are no tax considerations in place. Similar to the Central Okanagan, the North Okanagan also is getting increased call volume from Lower Mainland and Alberta purchasers, and I expect to see some further showing activity as the weather improves and more of these out-of-town purchasers arrive back in the Okanagan.

Sales price average
+10.04%
2023 → 2024 YTD

The North Okanagan has seen some promising sales in the higher price points, which has led to a very sizeable jump in the sales price data.

Average acre size per sale
-15.18%
2023 → 2024 YTD

Likewise, even despite some higher sales, the same in the Central Okanagan has held true in the North Okanagan; there is a continued shift towards more affordable and smaller lakeshore properties in a tough economic climate.

Average price per sq.ft. of land
+201.99%
2023 → 2024 YTD

The average sq.ft. of land has gone up significantly based on the stabilization of prices, but with smaller land sizes; this number will normalize as more sales occur to smooth out the data points.

Lakeshore

04
Speculation & Vacancy Tax

Speculation & Vacancy Tax

On November 22 2023, the BC provincial government announced that it would be expanding its speculation and vacancy tax to the following regions for 2025:

Lake Country, Peachland, Vernon, Coldstream, Summerland, Penticton, Courteney, Comox, Cumberland, Parksville, Qualicum Beach, Salmon Arm and Kamloops.

“Residential property owners in these communities will need to declare for the first time in January 2025 based on how they used their property in 2024.”

“The speculation and vacancy tax rate is 2% for people who don’t pay the majority of their taxes in Canada, or 0.5% for Canadian citizens or permanent residents who pay the majority of their taxes in Canada.”

This is a very interesting policy change from the provincial government. Since its first inception in 2018, the major markets of Kelowna/West-Kelowna were impacted by this tax implementation here in the Okanagan. As a result, many purchasers looking for secondary/vacation homes were drawn to the “secondary” lakeshore markets of Lake Country, Vernon, Coldstream, Peachland and Summerland. I have had many buyers specifically buy in these regions due to the tax benefits in comparison to Kelowna/West-Kelowna.

With this announcement and anticipated implementation in the coming months, I would anticipate that we may see some sellers choose to sell their lakeshore properties if they are not wishing to pay this tax over the years to come. Likewise, with more “underutilized” lakeshore properties, there may be a preference to rent the property long-term or find another solution to avoid paying the speculation tax. To put it into perspective, a seller (Canadian Citizen) who holds a $5,000,000 property (assessed) and has to pay the speculation tax would be responsible for the payment of $5,000,000 x 0.5% = $25,000 annually. This is a large bill to pay and there will be resistance, both financially and in principle.

I am happy to have a conversation about this tax and how it may impact your lakeshore investment; my direct line is 250-470-2388.

Residential property owners in these communities will need to declare for the first time in January 2025 based on how they used their property in 2024.

Scott Marshall

Lakeshore

05
Notable Sales

FEATURED LAKESHORE

Listings

Lakeshore Listings

06
5560 Lakeshore Road, Kelowna

Lakeshore Listings

06
704 Stonor Steet, Kelowna

Lakeshore Listings

06
2765 Arthur Road, Kelowna

Lakeshore Listings

06
Lot A 16012 Oyama Road, Lake Country

Lakeshore Listings

06
Lot B Oyama Road, Lake Country

Lakeshore Listings

06
1070 Lakeshore Drive W Unit# 201 & 202, Penticton

Lakeshore Listings

06
Lot 4 Lakeshore Road, Kelowna

Lakeshore Listings

06
8349 Okanagan Landing Road, Vernon

Lakeshore Listings

06
Lot A Oyama Road, Lake Country

Lakeshore Listings

06
16980 Coral Beach Road, Lake Country

Lakeshore Listings

07
#32, 18451 Crystal Waters Road

Are you looking to buy or sell a lakeshore property? We can help.

The Marshall Reports

Reports with a focus on providing valuable insights into the local luxury, lakeshore, acreage, and unique property market throughout the Central Okanagan.

Why Work

With Us

$150M

Total sales volume since 2020

180+

transactions since 2020

3

agents

80+

active listings

The Scott Marshall Homes Group is a sophisticated group of high-producing agents at RE/MAX Kelowna, the #1 producing RE/MAX office in British Columbia.

The production and marketing expertise of the Scott Marshall Homes Group speaks for itself. In his earlier years as an independent agent, Scott Marshall was the #1 producing agent at RE/MAX Kelowna across its 200+ agent office for multiple years, the #2 producing RE/MAX agent in BC, and was ranked in the top 100 agents in the world for RE/MAX across its 144,000+ agents. Since then, Scott began growing his team organically.

Now, with multiple high-producing agents that mirror the success of his individual success, their team has produced hundreds of millions of dollars in sales volume, and have created some of the most effective and irreplaceable marketing platforms in the industry. Being part of the fifth generation of his family to call the Okanagan home, the Marshall family has a proud history in real estate and farming dating back to 1911; Scott knows the area like the back of his hand and every possible detail that is relevant to a potential transaction in the Okanagan. A large percentage of his business comes through repeat business and the referrals of satisfied clients.

Awards

Awards

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* 2022 – RE/MAX Canada

Contact

Scott Marshall and his team are happy to assist in any way possible on the potential purchase or sale of any property here in the Okanagan Valley. With a history dating back to 1911, we know the area like the back of our hands.

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